2010 Hurricane Season NOAA Predictions

Great... Just what we needed... NOAA Predicts Above Normal Hurricane Season

NOAA issued its 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook on May 27, 2010. According to the forecast, there is an 85% change of an above-average hurricane season in 2010. We can expect an "active to extremely active" season.

A busy hurricane season will be attributable to the presence of weather conditions that have historically been favorable for hurricane formation. For example, the sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea warmer than usual. Also, La Niña conditions in the tropical Pacific are becoming increasingly likely, making it less likely that wind shear will tear storms apart.   According to NOAA, there is a 70% probability for the following ranges of hurricane activity for 2010:

 

  • 14-23 named storms (winds 39 mph or higher)
  • 8-14 hurricanes (winds 74 mph or higher)
  • 3-7 major hurricanes (winds of at least 111 mph)

NOAA does not issue an official seasonal hurricane landfall outlook because predicting the timing and location of hurricane strikes is dependent on daily weather patterns, which are not predictable weeks or months in advance. Given the expected weather conditions, however, comparable historical data would call for multiple hurricane strikes in the U.S. and in the Caribbean.

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About the Author

Full Name
Pamela Hill

Location
Chicago, IL

Company
Hyperion Global Partners

Title
Managing Director